Monroe Chat

2009-2010 Winter Forecast
The holiday season is quickly approaching which means a change in the weather here across the Ohio Valley is on its way! How will the winter of 2009-2010 compare to the last few years? What factors are going to determine the winter across the Ohio Valley? How much snowfall will we see? Will we see historic cold?
There are several factors that are going to effect the upcoming winter and the biggest factor will be a moderate to weak El Nino. El Nino is forecasted to weaken during the first part of the 2009-2010 winter. This year’s El Nino is a western and central Pacific based El Nino. This factor is known for bringing colder and stormier weather across the Eastern United States. I am expecting El Nino to become weak during the end of December through March.
The second factor that will effect this upcoming winter will be a negative North Atlantic Oscillation which is a vast area of cold water over the northern Atlantic Ocean. Many of the forecast models forecast a dominating negative NAO throughout the 2009-2010 winter. When you have a negative NAO it leads to a colder weather pattern across the United States.
The third factor is the previous year’s weather which overall has been much colder than normal. The atmosphere has been cooling since July across the Ohio Valley. We had a record cold July and October across the eastern United States and the analogs that forecasters use closely relate to those winter of the 1970’s!
The last factor will be active Pacific Jet stream which will allow for storm systems to move across the southern United States and pull Gulf of Mexico moisture into systems and when you combine that with the cold air in place that could lead to some memorable snow storms across the Eastern United States. The Ohio Valley will likely get a few of storm systems throughout the upcoming winter.
Those are the primary the factors that will affect the weather across the Ohio Valley this upcoming winter.

December 2009:
The weather throughout December will be about average as the building of the cold begins to take shape across Canada and the arctic. The changes in the weather pattern will be underway as we begin December. The month of December will start out cool to cold with highs in the 30’s and 40’s to start the month. The storm track will become more active throughout the month of December. The cold air will become more pronounced and become longer in duration as we progress throughout the month of December. We will see days of 50’s and we may crack 60 a day or two December but that will come ahead of storm system that will bring heavy rain and wind and bring much colder air behind the storm system.
Temperatures in December will end up near average with a maximum high of 62 degrees. When it comes to the coldest temperature we will see single digit readings during the month of December and temperatures could get mighty close to 0 before the month is over. The coldest high temperature for December will be 17 degrees and the coldest nighttime low will be 0. This will be just the beginning of what’s to come in January and February!
Precipitation throughout the month will be near average. We will see some rain and snow throughout the month. I expect around 6-10 inches of snow throughout the month of December. We could see one or two decent snow storms throughout the month. Will we see a white Christmas? I think there is a better than 50% chance of seeing a white Christmas this year. Overall we will see a good deal of snowfall during the month along with some rainfall.


January 2010
2010 will be upon us and as end December and begin January there could be a slight relaxation in the cold pattern where we will see a string of days with highs in the 40’s and 50’s but during this time the cold will reload for a major assault on the United States. Overall temperatures will end up below average by about 2-5 degrees. The maximum high temperature will be 54 degrees. The cold will be something that many will be talking about! The minimum high temperature will be around 8 degrees. The minimum low temperature will be around -10 degrees. Historic cold is not out of the question as we get towards the second half of January.
January will end up below normal in precipitation simply because we will see mainly frozen precipitation during the month. We will likely see 1-2 big snowstorm of 6+ inches then once the cold pattern takes hold we will see a pattern of Alberta Clippers that will dump anywhere from 2-6 inches of snowfall. I predict at least 14-18 inches of snow during the month of January. What about ice and sleet? We will we see less freezing rain and sleet but it’s not out of the question areas south of here will likely see a major ice storm during January. Overall January will be a cold one!
February 2010
The cold air will continue into February but we will likely see a brief relaxation before the knockout blow comes during the month of February. Temperatures will end up below average by about five degrees. The maximum high temperature will be 55 degrees. The coldest day will be a daytime high of 9 degrees and the coldest night could be historic again with lows near negative 10 to 15 degrees. This kind of cold will likely come during the first 20 days of the month. The seasonal warming will begin to show as we end February. Overall February will be cold!
Precipitation during the month will be below normal with again most of our precipitation coming in the way of snow. Snowfall will be around 10-12 inches during February. Most of the snowfall will come with clipper systems from Alberta as the clipper reinforces the cold air across the area. Again most of the ice accumulation will be to our south as the cold air will be too dense for any ice accumulations.
The winter of 2009-2010 will be much colder than previous winters and for the older folks it could remind them of the winters of the 1970’s. Snowfall will end up above average with about 30-40 inches of snowfall.

You are just full of good news!!! You can't really appreciate just how wrong I hope you are on this forecast. I will be going elsewhere to escape when the kids are through school.

I really like global warming (climate change) much better. Would you consider changing your numbers to something more temperate, in exhange for whatever it will take to cover it all up and maintain the party line!!!